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9 de Octubre vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
A. Stephens 68' (pen), 32'
K. Becerra 57'
M. Camargo 65'
E. López 36'
5/4/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

9 de Octubre48%
×Draw22%
Independiente Medellin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

9 de Octubre
2.02
Independiente Medellin
1.59

9 de Octubre creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

9 de Octubre
2.25
Independiente Medellin
1.44

allows per match

9 de Octubre
1.75
Independiente Medellin
1.78

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw
69%
9 de Octubre or Independiente Medellin
78%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
52%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+
27%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals
87%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
60%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
33%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
80%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
47%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
61%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 2.25 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.02

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

9 de Octubre scores more
48%
level
22%
Independiente Medellin scores more
31%

9 de Octubre at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. Stephens9 de Octubre9 de Octubre · F
8.5

Match Events

32'
A. Stephens↳ M. Cangá
36'
E. López↳ A. Ricaurte
40'
Javier Méndez
54'
Germán Gutiérrez
57'
K. Becerra↳ D. Luna
65'
M. Camargo
66'
V. Hernández← A. Ricaurte
66'
Y. Gómez← G. Gutiérrez
66'
L. Pons← D. Cambindo
66'
B. Castrillón← A. Arregui
68'
A. StephensPenalty
75'
Kevin Becerra
85'
Ricardo Phillips
89'
D. Loaiza← M. Camargo
90+1'
Javier Méndez
90+2'
E. Esterilla← É. Cetré
90+7'
W. Caicedo← A. Stephens
90+3'
M. Lucas← D. Luna

Possession

46%9

Shots

109

Pass accuracy

50%9

Statistics

9Independiente
Overview
46%Possession54%
10Total Shots10
3Corners3
18Fouls19
Shots
10Total Shots10
4On Target3
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
7Inside Box6
3Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
277Total Passes324
171Accurate Passes204
62%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls19
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides5

Match Recap: 9 de Octubre vs Independiente Medellin

9 de Octubre beat Independiente Medellin 3-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 4, 2022.

Goals: A. Stephens (32', 68' pen), E. López (36'), K. Becerra (57'), M. Camargo (65').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.