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Independiente FSJ vs Camboriú — Serie D 2018

Independiente FSJ
Independiente FSJ
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Camboriú
Camboriú
6/3/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Cilmar Pedro Goergen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Independiente FSJ36%
×Draw34%
Camboriú30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente FSJ
0.90
Camboriú
0.80

Independiente FSJ creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Independiente FSJ
0.69
Camboriú
1.22

allows per match

Independiente FSJ
0.38
Camboriú
1.11

finishing

Independiente FSJ+0.00on par
Camboriú+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente FSJ ↓

Camboriú →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Independiente FSJ or draw
70%
Independiente FSJ or Camboriú
66%
Draw or Camboriú
64%

Winning margin

Independiente FSJ wins by 2+
13%
Camboriú wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Independiente FSJ 1+ goals
59%
Independiente FSJ 2+ goals
23%
Independiente FSJ 3+ goals
6%
Camboriú 1+ goals
55%
Camboriú 2+ goals
19%
Camboriú 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente FSJ (draw refunded)
54%
Camboriú (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente FSJ at home — creates 0.69, concedes 0.38 · 13 matches

Camboriú away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente FSJ attack 0.69 + Camboriú defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Camboriú attack 1.22 + Independiente FSJ defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Independiente FSJ scores more
36%
level
34%
Camboriú scores more
30%

Independiente FSJ at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Independiente FSJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente FSJ vs Camboriú

Independiente FSJ beat Camboriú 2-0 in Serie D on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Cilmar Pedro Goergen in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná.