Camboriú 3–3 Independiente FSJ: Result & Stats

Camboriú

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Independiente FSJ

6/24/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Eduardo Zeferino Tiago

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Camboriú46%

×Draw30%

Independiente FSJ24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CamboriúExpected goals in this matchIndependiente FSJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.77

Camboriú

1.18

Independiente FSJ

0.77

Camboriú creates 53% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.11

creates per match

0.75

0.78

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Camboriú

1.11

Independiente FSJ

0.75

allows per match

Camboriú

0.78

Independiente FSJ

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Camboriú+0.00on par

Independiente FSJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camboriú ↓

Independiente FSJ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Camboriú or draw

76%

Camboriú or Independiente FSJ

70%

Draw or Independiente FSJ

54%

Winning margin

Camboriú wins by 2+

20%

Independiente FSJ wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Camboriú 1+ goals

69%

Camboriú 2+ goals

33%

Camboriú 3+ goals

12%

Independiente FSJ 1+ goals

54%

Independiente FSJ 2+ goals

18%

Independiente FSJ 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Camboriú (draw refunded)

65%

Independiente FSJ (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camboriú at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Independiente FSJ away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camboriú attack 1.11 + Independiente FSJ defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Independiente FSJ attack 0.75 + Camboriú defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Camboriú scores more

46%

level

30%

Independiente FSJ scores more

24%

Camboriú at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Camboriú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff