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Independiente FSJ vs Apucarana — Paranaense - 2 2020

Independiente FSJ
Independiente FSJ
FT
2 – 2
Apucarana
Apucarana
9/30/2020Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Doutor Tancredo Neves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Independiente FSJ50%
×Draw26%
Apucarana24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente FSJ
1.55
Apucarana
0.99

Independiente FSJ creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

creates per match

Independiente FSJ
1.60
Apucarana
0.79

allows per match

Independiente FSJ
1.20
Apucarana
1.50

finishing

Independiente FSJ+0.00on par
Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente FSJ ↓

Apucarana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente FSJ or draw
76%
Independiente FSJ or Apucarana
74%
Draw or Apucarana
50%

Winning margin

Independiente FSJ wins by 2+
26%
Apucarana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Independiente FSJ 1+ goals
79%
Independiente FSJ 2+ goals
46%
Independiente FSJ 3+ goals
20%
Apucarana 1+ goals
63%
Apucarana 2+ goals
26%
Apucarana 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente FSJ (draw refunded)
68%
Apucarana (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente FSJ at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente FSJ attack 1.60 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Apucarana attack 0.79 + Independiente FSJ defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente FSJ scores more
50%
level
26%
Apucarana scores more
24%

Independiente FSJ at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente FSJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Independiente FSJ 2–2 Apucarana

Independiente FSJ and Apucarana drew 2-2 in Paranaense - 2 on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Doutor Tancredo Neves in São José dos Pinhais, Paraná.