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Apucarana vs Independiente FSJ — Paranaense - 2 2020

Apucarana
Apucarana
FT
1 – 2
Independiente FSJ
Independiente FSJ
9/8/2021Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Apucarana45%
×Draw27%
Independiente FSJ28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apucarana
1.42
Independiente FSJ
1.06

Apucarana creates 34% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

creates per match

Apucarana
1.50
Independiente FSJ
1.42

allows per match

Apucarana
0.71
Independiente FSJ
1.33

finishing

Apucarana+0.00on par
Independiente FSJ+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana ↓

Independiente FSJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Apucarana or draw
72%
Apucarana or Independiente FSJ
73%
Draw or Independiente FSJ
55%

Winning margin

Apucarana wins by 2+
22%
Independiente FSJ wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Apucarana 1+ goals
76%
Apucarana 2+ goals
41%
Apucarana 3+ goals
17%
Independiente FSJ 1+ goals
65%
Independiente FSJ 2+ goals
29%
Independiente FSJ 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Apucarana (draw refunded)
62%
Independiente FSJ (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Independiente FSJ away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana attack 1.50 + Independiente FSJ defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Independiente FSJ attack 1.42 + Apucarana defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Apucarana scores more
45%
level
27%
Independiente FSJ scores more
28%

Apucarana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Apucarana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apucarana vs Independiente FSJ

Independiente FSJ beat Apucarana 2-1 in Paranaense - 2 on September 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto in Apucarana, Paraná.