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Independiente del Valle vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
Preview
20:00
Macara
Macara
9/6/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 29Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Big match
51%
Independiente del Valle
model favours
51%26%23%

Independiente del Valle have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Independiente del Valle51%
×Draw26%
Macara23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.55
Macara
0.95

Independiente del Valle creates 63% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 117 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Macara
1.11

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.79
Macara
1.33

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
77%
Independiente del Valle or Macara
74%
Draw or Macara
49%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
27%
Macara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
79%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
46%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
20%
Macara 1+ goals
61%
Macara 2+ goals
25%
Macara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
69%
Macara (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.79 · 133 matches

Macara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.55

Macara attack 1.11 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
51%
level
26%
Macara scores more
23%

Independiente del Valle at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Macara have won 4 in a row
  • Macara are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Macara score first in only 24% of matches
  • Independiente del Valle have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 79% of Independiente del Valle’s matches
  • Independiente del Valle have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Independiente del Valle
Possession-dominant
Macara
Defensively solid
60%Possession49%
87%Pass accuracy75%
15.6Shots12.7
2.09xGBiggest gap1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Independiente del ValleMacara

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Independiente del Valle
1
Draws
2
Macara
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 30%
3–02–11–17–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Valle
WWWWW
Macara
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente del Valle face Macara (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Independiente del Valle hosting Macara. Match starts September 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Independiente del Valle host Macara at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.