Independiente del Valle 2–1 Gremio: Result & Stats

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gremio

L. Faravelli 61' (pen), 53'

Diego Souza 9'

4/9/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundEstadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Independiente del Valle55%

×Draw24%

Gremio22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.99

Independiente del Valle

1.73

Gremio

0.99

Independiente del Valle creates 75% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

2.28

creates per match

1.19

0.80

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Gremio

1.19

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Gremio

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

78%

Independiente del Valle or Gremio

76%

Draw or Gremio

45%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

30%

Gremio wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

82%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

52%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

25%

Gremio 1+ goals

63%

Gremio 2+ goals

26%

Gremio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

72%

Gremio (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Gremio away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Gremio defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gremio attack 1.19 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

55%

level

24%

Gremio scores more

22%

Independiente del Valle at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Faravelli

Independiente del Valle · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

10'

17'

26'

46'

Darlan Mendes← C. Pinares

47'

Ruan

53'

L. Faravelli↳ B. Montenegro

59'

Ruan

59'

Ruan

61'

L. FaravelliPenalty

62'

B. García← C. Pellerano

62'

David Braz← Diego Souza

63'

Fernando Henrique← Lucas Silva

69'

J. Murillo← C. Ortiz

69'

J. Sánchez← J. Hurtado

71'

Leonardo Chú← Alisson

76'

E. Mera← P. Vite

76'

J. Escobar← B. Montenegro

76'

Bruno Cortez← Felipe

85'

William Pacho

85'

Efrén Mera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteGremio

Overview

69%Possession31%

16Total Shots4

7Corners1

14Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots4

5On Target1

10Off Target3

1Blocked0

9Inside Box2

7Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

570Total Passes247

503Accurate Passes176

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 2–1 Gremio

Independiente del Valle beat Gremio 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 9, 2021.

Goals: Diego Souza (9'), L. Faravelli (53', 61' pen).

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.

Independiente del Valle vs Gremio — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 2–1 Gremio