Gremio 1–2 Independiente del Valle: Result & Stats

Gremio

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente del Valle

Jean Pyerre 22'

C. Ortiz 66', 45+3'

4/14/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundArena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gremio60%

×Draw23%

Independiente del Valle17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.83

Gremio

1.79

Independiente del Valle

0.83

Gremio creates 116% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

1.75

creates per match

0.92

0.75

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Gremio

1.75

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Gremio

0.75

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

83%

Gremio or Independiente del Valle

77%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

40%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

35%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

83%

Gremio 2+ goals

53%

Gremio 3+ goals

26%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

56%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

20%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

78%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.75 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Gremio defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gremio scores more

60%

level

23%

Independiente del Valle scores more

17%

Gremio at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Ortiz

Independiente del Valle · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

18'

22'

45+1'

45+3'

46'

J. Chávez← B. Caicedo

55'

Pepê← Alisson

61'

Bruno Cortez

63'

Maicon

63'

Maicon

66'

C. Ortiz↳ L. Faravelli

71'

Darlan Mendes← Jean Pyerre

71'

Luiz Fernando← Ferreira

75'

J. Murillo← B. Montenegro

76'

José Hurtado Cheme

76'

B. García← P. Vite

80'

Diego Souza

80'

A. Landázuri← J. Hurtado

82'

Walter Kannemann

82'

Ricardinho← Diego Souza

82'

Lucas Silva← Matheus Henrique

84'

J. Escobar← C. Ortiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GremioIndependiente

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots18

1Corners2

16Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots18

5On Target5

4Off Target7

1Blocked6

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box12

Passing

42%Possession58%

417Total Passes563

356Accurate Passes496

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls10

6Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

5Offsides1