Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independiente del Valle vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro 2018

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
8/27/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 23Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Independiente del Valle72%
×Draw18%
Fuerza Amarilla10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
2.23
Fuerza Amarilla
0.69

Independiente del Valle creates 223% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 15 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.78
Fuerza Amarilla
0.60

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.78
Fuerza Amarilla
2.67

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
90%
Independiente del Valle or Fuerza Amarilla
82%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
28%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
48%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
89%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
65%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
38%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
50%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
15%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
88%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 134 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.60 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
72%
level
18%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
10%

Independiente del Valle at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Fuerza Amarilla

Independiente del Valle beat Fuerza Amarilla 2-0 in Liga Pro on August 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).