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Fuerza Amarilla vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
4/7/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 8Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla21%
×Draw22%
Independiente del Valle57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.08
Independiente del Valle
1.92

Independiente del Valle creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 134 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.00
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
2.27
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
43%
Fuerza Amarilla or Independiente del Valle
78%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
79%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
8%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
66%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
29%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
10%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
85%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
57%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
27%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
21%
level
22%
Independiente del Valle scores more
57%

Independiente del Valle at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Fuerza Amarilla 0–1 Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Fuerza Amarilla 1-0 in Liga Pro on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.