Independiente del Valle 5–0 Flamengo

Independiente del Valle

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Flamengo

B. Caicedo 90+2'

J. Sánchez 81'

G. Torres 58'

A. Preciado 49'

M. Caicedo 40'

9/18/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Independiente del Valle49%

×Draw26%

Flamengo25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.98

Independiente del Valle

1.48

Flamengo

0.98

Independiente del Valle creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.03

creates per match

1.03

0.92

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.03

Flamengo

1.03

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.92

Flamengo

0.93

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente del Valle-0.25scores less

Flamengo+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

75%

Independiente del Valle or Flamengo

74%

Draw or Flamengo

51%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

24%

Flamengo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

77%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

43%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

19%

Flamengo 1+ goals

62%

Flamengo 2+ goals

26%

Flamengo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

66%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.92 · 9 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.03 + Flamengo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

Flamengo attack 1.03 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

49%

level

26%

Flamengo scores more

25%

Independiente del Valle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

B. Caicedo

Independiente del Valle · D

9.0

Match Events

-5'

Gustavo Henrique

40'

M. Caicedo↳ G. Torres

46'

Bruno Henrique← Diego

49'

A. Preciado↳ L. Faravelli

52'

Ángelo Preciado

58'

G. Torres↳ M. Caicedo

61'

J. Sánchez← F. Guerrero

64'

Willian Arão

65'

Thiago Maia← Gerson

66'

Michael← Éverton Ribeiro

69'

C. Ortiz← J. Murillo

75'

E. Montaño← G. Torres

76'

E. Mera← L. Faravelli

76'

B. Rivero← M. Caicedo

76'

Renê← Filipe Luís

76'

Pedro← G. De Arrascaeta

81'

J. Sánchez↳ B. Caicedo

88'

90'

90'

90'

90+2'

B. Caicedo↳ B. Rivero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteFlamengo

Overview

59%Possession41%

21Total Shots5

4Corners1

12Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots5

11On Target2

9Off Target3

1Blocked0

8Inside Box2

13Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

518Total Passes347

458Accurate Passes288

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2