Flamengo 4–0 Independiente del Valle

Flamengo

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Independiente del Valle

Bruno Henrique 72', 51'

Pedro 30'

Lincoln 26'

10/1/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Flamengo60%

×Draw24%

Independiente del Valle16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.74

Flamengo

1.68

Independiente del Valle

0.74

Flamengo creates 127% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.98

creates per match

0.94

0.54

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Flamengo

1.98

Independiente del Valle

0.94

allows per match

Flamengo

0.54

Independiente del Valle

1.38

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Flamengo-0.41scores less

Independiente del Valle-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

84%

Flamengo or Independiente del Valle

76%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

40%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

33%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

81%

Flamengo 2+ goals

50%

Flamengo 3+ goals

24%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

52%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

17%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

79%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.54 · 7 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.98 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.68

Independiente del Valle attack 0.94 + Flamengo defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Flamengo scores more

60%

level

24%

Independiente del Valle scores more

16%

Flamengo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Hugo Souza

Flamengo · G

8.5

Match Events

22'

G. Torres

26'

Lincoln↳ Matheuzinho

30'

Pedro↳ Gabriel Barbosa

45+1'

Bruno Henrique← Gabriel Barbosa

51'

Bruno Henrique

60'

E. Montaño← C. Pellerano

64'

J. Sánchez← C. Ortiz

71'

Guilherme Bala← Matheuzinho

71'

M. Isla← Lincoln

72'

Bruno Henrique↳ G. De Arrascaeta

74'

F. Guerrero

78'

Diego← Thiago Maia

78'

Michael← Pedro

83'

J. Chávez← F. Guerrero

83'

P. Alvarado← G. Torres

89'

P. Alvarado

90+2'

G. Noga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoIndependiente

Overview

32%Possession68%

13Total Shots21

3Corners6

11Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots21

8On Target7

4Off Target8

1Blocked6

7Inside Box10

6Outside Box11

Passing

32%Possession68%

269Total Passes557

215Accurate Passes500

80%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides4

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Flamengo 4–0 Independiente del Valle

Flamengo beat Independiente del Valle 4-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on October 1, 2020.

Goals: Lincoln (26'), Pedro (30'), Bruno Henrique (51', 72').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (68%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.

Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Flamengo 4–0 Independiente del Valle