Independiente del Valle 3–0 FBC Melgar

Independiente del Valle

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FBC Melgar

L. Díaz 69'

L. Faravelli 67'

R. Schunke 29'

9/1/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-finalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente del Valle63%

×Draw22%

FBC Melgar15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchFBC Melgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.76

Independiente del Valle

1.82

FBC Melgar

0.76

Independiente del Valle creates 139% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

1.77

creates per match

0.75

0.77

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.77

FBC Melgar

0.75

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.77

FBC Melgar

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

FBC Melgar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

85%

Independiente del Valle or FBC Melgar

78%

Draw or FBC Melgar

37%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

37%

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

84%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

54%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

27%

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

53%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

18%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

81%

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + FBC Melgar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

FBC Melgar attack 0.75 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

63%

level

22%

FBC Melgar scores more

15%

Independiente del Valle at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Schunke

Independiente del Valle · D

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Joan López

29'

R. Schunke↳ J. Sornoza

62'

C. Bordacahar← K. Cabrera

64'

J. Ortiz← C. Pellerano

67'

L. Faravelli↳ M. Angulo

69'

L. Díaz

71'

F. Gaibor← L. Díaz

71'

Jaimen Ayoví← M. Angulo

72'

A. Minda← J. Sornoza

75'

J. Vidales← L. Iberico

85'

J. Sánchez← M. Pérez

87'

W. Vargas← M. Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteFBC

Overview

59%Possession41%

23Total Shots7

9Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

23Total Shots7

10On Target2

7Off Target3

6Blocked2

19Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

457Total Passes326

374Accurate Passes248

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides8

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente del Valle 3–0 FBC Melgar

Independiente del Valle beat FBC Melgar 3-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on September 1, 2022.

Goals: R. Schunke (29'), L. Faravelli (67'), L. Díaz (69').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (59%) and registered 23 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

Independiente del Valle vs FBC Melgar — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente del Valle 3–0 FBC Melgar