FBC Melgar 0–3 Independiente del Valle

FBC Melgar

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

L. Segovia 87'

L. Díaz 53', 28'

9/8/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-finalsEstadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FBC Melgar40%

×Draw30%

Independiente del Valle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC MelgarExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.96

FBC Melgar

1.15

Independiente del Valle

0.96

FBC Melgar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

0.75

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

FBC Melgar

1.38

Independiente del Valle

1.17

allows per match

FBC Melgar

0.75

Independiente del Valle

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw

70%

FBC Melgar or Independiente del Valle

70%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

60%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

17%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

68%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

32%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

11%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

62%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

25%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

57%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.38 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Independiente del Valle attack 1.17 + FBC Melgar defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FBC Melgar scores more

40%

level

30%

Independiente del Valle scores more

30%

FBC Melgar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Díaz

Independiente del Valle · F

8.5

Match Events

28'

30'

30'

53'

58'

59'

61'

61'

W. Tandazo← K. Quevedo

66'

J. Ortiz← C. Pellerano

66'

J. Bauman← L. Díaz

73'

J. Vidales← L. Iberico

78'

P. Mercado← L. Faravelli

78'

D. Cabezas← J. Sornoza

80'

Fernando Gaibor

83'

Alec Deneumostier

87'

L. Segovia↳ R. Schunke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FBCIndependiente

Overview

60%Possession40%

7Total Shots6

8Corners1

15Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots6

2On Target5

3Off Target1

2Blocked0

5Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

505Total Passes348

435Accurate Passes272

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

6Offsides2