Independiente del Valle 1–1 Deportivo Pereira

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Pereira

M. Hoyos 6'

L. Angulo 50'

8/10/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independiente del Valle60%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Pereira14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.60

Independiente del Valle

1.54

Deportivo Pereira

0.60

Independiente del Valle creates 157% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

2.28

creates per match

0.40

0.80

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Deportivo Pereira

0.40

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Deportivo Pereira

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

86%

Independiente del Valle or Deportivo Pereira

75%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

40%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

32%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

79%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

45%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

20%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

45%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

12%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

81%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Deportivo Pereira defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.40 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

60%

level

25%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

14%

Independiente del Valle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Zuluaga

Deportivo Pereira · M

7.6

Match Events

6'

20'

29'

31'

40'

41'

50'

L. Angulo↳ J. Zuluaga

52'

E. Murillo← L. Angulo

60'

A. Landázuri← C. Pellerano

67'

J. Alcívar← J. Sornoza

67'

K. Rodríguez← B. Caicedo

78'

G. Cortéz← M. Fernández

78'

M. Moreno← K. Páez

83'

Kevin RodriguezPenalty confirmed

90+3'

Ewil Murillo

90'

Y. Súarez← Arley Rodríguez

90'

G. Perea← C. Garcés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteDeportivo

Overview

73%Possession27%

26Total Shots9

3.23Expected Goals (xG)0.73

15Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots9

4On Target1

11Off Target6

11Blocked2

15Inside Box5

11Outside Box4

Passing

73%Possession27%

471Total Passes188

409Accurate Passes116

87%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Pereira

Independiente del Valle and Deportivo Pereira drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 10, 2023.

Goals: M. Hoyos (6'), L. Angulo (50').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (73%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.

Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Pereira — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Pereira