Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Independiente del Valle

Deportivo Pereira

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

D. Santacruz 58'

8/3/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Pereira45%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Deportivo Pereira

1.42

Independiente del Valle

1.06

Deportivo Pereira creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

1.20

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.00

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.20

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

72%

Deportivo Pereira or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

22%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

17%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

65%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

29%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

62%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

45%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

28%

Deportivo Pereira at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Ramírez

Independiente del Valle · G

8.5

Match Events

19'

Arley Rodríguez

41'

Eber Moreno

58'

D. Santacruz↳ Eber Moreno

63'

J. Bocanegra← D. Santacruz

63'

K. Páez← C. Pellerano

72'

B. Caicedo← J. Sornoza

72'

M. Hoyos← L. Díaz

81'

E. Murillo← L. Angulo

81'

P. Mercado← J. Alcívar

81'

M. Moreno← K. Rodríguez

89'

G. Perea← C. Garcés

89'

J. Monroy← Arley Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoIndependiente

Overview

37%Possession63%

16Total Shots10

1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.56

5Corners10

9Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots10

9On Target1

4Off Target7

3Blocked2

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

332Total Passes550

266Accurate Passes487

80%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

9Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3