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Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
4/6/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 7Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Independiente del Valle57%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Cuenca19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.64
Deportivo Cuenca
0.82

Independiente del Valle creates 100% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 130 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Deportivo Cuenca
0.86

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.79
Deportivo Cuenca
1.50

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
81%
Independiente del Valle or Deportivo Cuenca
75%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
43%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
31%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
81%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
49%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
23%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
20%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
75%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.79 · 133 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.50 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.86 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
57%
level
25%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
19%

Independiente del Valle at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Deportivo Cuenca

Independiente del Valle beat Deportivo Cuenca 4-0 in Liga Pro on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.