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Deportivo Cuenca vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
10/25/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 11Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca37%
×Draw26%
Independiente del Valle37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.35
Independiente del Valle
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 133 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.53
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.13
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
63%
Deportivo Cuenca or Independiente del Valle
74%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
17%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
15%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
74%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
39%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
50%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.53 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
37%
level
26%
Independiente del Valle scores more
37%

Deportivo Cuenca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 0–2 Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Deportivo Cuenca 2-0 in Liga Pro on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.