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Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
Preview
20:00
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
8/16/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 25Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Big match
57%
Independiente del Valle
model favours
57%24%19%

Independiente del Valle have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Independiente del Valle57%
×Draw24%
Delfin SC19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.72
Delfin SC
0.87

Independiente del Valle creates 98% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 133 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Delfin SC
0.95

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.79
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
81%
Independiente del Valle or Delfin SC
76%
Draw or Delfin SC
43%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
32%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
82%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
51%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
25%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
58%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
22%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
75%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.79 · 133 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
57%
level
24%
Delfin SC scores more
19%

Independiente del Valle at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Delfin SC score first in only 25% of matches
  • 75% of Delfin SC’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Independiente del Valle have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 79% of Independiente del Valle’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Independiente del Valle 2 vs Delfin SC 4
  • Style contrast — Independiente del Valle play Possession-dominant, Delfin SC Direct / counter-attacking

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Independiente del Valle
Possession-dominant
Delfin SC
Direct / counter-attacking
60%Possession44%
87%Pass accuracy72%
15.6Shots10.1
2.09xGBiggest gap0.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Independiente del ValleDelfin SC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Independiente del Valle
3
Draws
2
Delfin SC
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 20%
1–00–01–11–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Valle
WWWWW
SC
WWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente del Valle face Delfin SC (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Independiente del Valle hosting Delfin SC. Match starts August 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Independiente del Valle host Delfin SC at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.