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Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
9/28/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 30Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Independiente del Valle58%
×Draw24%
Delfin SC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.73
Delfin SC
0.86

Independiente del Valle creates 101% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 133 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.78
Delfin SC
0.95

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.78
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
82%
Independiente del Valle or Delfin SC
76%
Draw or Delfin SC
42%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
33%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
82%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
52%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
25%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
58%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
21%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
76%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 134 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
58%
level
24%
Delfin SC scores more
18%

Independiente del Valle at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Delfin SC

Independiente del Valle and Delfin SC drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.