Delfin SC 1–1 Independiente del Valle

Delfin SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

5/31/2025

Liga Pro · Round 15Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Delfin SC36%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delfin SCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.28

Delfin SC

1.27

Independiente del Valle

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 134 away

1.38

creates per match

1.56

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Delfin SC

1.38

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

Delfin SC

1.00

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw

63%

Delfin SC or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

64%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+

16%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals

72%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

36%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

14%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

72%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

37%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

50%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.38 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Delfin SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Delfin SC scores more

36%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

37%

Independiente del Valle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff