Independiente del Valle 2–0 Delfin SC

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Delfin SC

J. Sornoza 76', 26' (pen)

9/11/2022

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 10Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle56%

×Draw28%

Delfin SC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchDelfin SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.55

Independiente del Valle

1.34

Delfin SC

0.55

Independiente del Valle creates 144% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.53

creates per match

0.38

0.72

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.53

Delfin SC

0.38

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.72

Delfin SC

1.16

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente del Valle-0.03on par

Delfin SC-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Delfin SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

85%

Independiente del Valle or Delfin SC

72%

Draw or Delfin SC

44%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

28%

Delfin SC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

74%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

39%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

15%

Delfin SC 1+ goals

42%

Delfin SC 2+ goals

11%

Delfin SC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

79%

Delfin SC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.72 · 6 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.53 + Delfin SC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Delfin SC attack 0.38 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

56%

level

28%

Delfin SC scores more

15%

Independiente del Valle at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

J. SornozaPenalty

31'

Mateo Carabajal

34'

Nicolás Bazzana

46'

J. Betancourt← J. Rojas

46'

F. Coniglio← E. Mero

57'

Fernando Coniglio

59'

M. Fernández← A. Minda

67'

W. Fernández← J. Rodríguez

70'

M. Angulo← F. Gaibor

70'

Jaimen Ayoví← L. Díaz

70'

A. Burbano← J. Cuero

76'

J. Sornoza↳ R. Schunke

80'

K. Mercado← J. Alman

81'

P. Mercado← L. Faravelli

82'

J. Bauman← J. Sornoza

88'

Wiston Fernández

Independiente3-4-2-1

Delfin4-2-3-1

51

García

70

▼

Mero

2

Bazzana

19

▼

Alman

8

▼

Rodríguez

25

▼

Rojas

17

Velez

18

Caicedo

13

▼

57

1

1

14

2

5

A

Schunke

10

⚽2

▼

Sornoza

8

▼

Faravelli

7

▼

Gaibor

6

Chávez

50

▼

Minda

80

Ortiz

19

▼

Díaz

Manager: M. Anselmi

59'▲M. Fernández←▼A. Minda

70'▲M. Angulo←▼F. Gaibor

70'▲Jaimen Ayoví←▼L. Díaz

81'▲P. Mercado←▼L. Faravelli

82'▲J. Bauman←▼J. Sornoza

Independiente del Valle substitutes

13Fernández53Angulo17Ayoví54Mercado32Bauman11Cabezas27Vargas12Lopéz23Ortíz16Pellerano

Manager: G. Duró

46'▲J. Betancourt←▼J. Rojas

46'▲F. Coniglio←▼E. Mero

67'▲W. Fernández←▼J. Rodríguez

70'▲A. Burbano←▼J. Cuero

80'▲K. Mercado←▼J. Alman

Delfin SC substitutes

11Betancourt24Coniglio7Fernández23Burbano48Mercado30Becerra27Domínguez52Arteaga12Ortíz