Independiente del Valle 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Defensa Y Justicia

C. Ortiz 28'

C. Rotondi 7'

4/22/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group A - 1Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Independiente del Valle65%

×Draw19%

Defensa Y Justicia16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.04

Independiente del Valle

2.29

Defensa Y Justicia

1.04

Independiente del Valle creates 120% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 7 away

2.28

creates per match

1.29

0.80

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Defensa Y Justicia

1.29

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Defensa Y Justicia

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

84%

Independiente del Valle or Defensa Y Justicia

81%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

35%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

42%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

90%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

66%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

40%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

65%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

28%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

80%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.29

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.29 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

65%

level

19%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

16%

Independiente del Valle at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Hurtado

Independiente del Valle · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

C. Rotondi

28'

C. Ortiz↳ J. Hurtado

29'

J. Murillo← L. Segovia

50'

B. Garcia

55'

E. Brítez← N. Gallardo

56'

L. Escalante

59'

P. Vite← B. García

70'

T. Ortiz← M. Merentiel

70'

F. Pizzini← C. Rius

76'

R. Loaiza← L. Escalante

76'

J. González← C. Rotondi

77'

J. Escobar← B. Montenegro

78'

J. Chávez← F. Guerrero

78'

J. Sánchez← J. Hurtado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteDefensa

Overview

78%Possession22%

27Total Shots4

11Corners1

8Fouls9

Shots

27Total Shots4

7On Target1

14Off Target2

6Blocked1

16Inside Box1

11Outside Box3

Passing

78%Possession22%

655Total Passes188

591Accurate Passes102

90%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia

Independiente del Valle and Defensa Y Justicia drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 22, 2021.

Goals: C. Rotondi (7'), C. Ortiz (28').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (78%) and registered 27 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

Independiente del Valle vs Defensa Y Justicia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia