Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Independiente del Valle

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente del Valle

B. Romero 36'

J. Escobar 11'

5/27/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group A - 6Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia55%

×Draw24%

Independiente del Valle21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.96

Defensa Y Justicia

1.70

Independiente del Valle

0.96

Defensa Y Justicia creates 77% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

1.57

creates per match

0.92

1.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.57

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.00

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

79%

Defensa Y Justicia or Independiente del Valle

76%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

45%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

30%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

82%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

51%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

24%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

62%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

25%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

72%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.57 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

55%

level

24%

Independiente del Valle scores more

21%

Defensa Y Justicia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

B. Romero

Defensa Y Justicia · F

7.7

Match Events

11'

J. Escobar↳ E. Mera

36'

B. Romero↳ E. Fernández

58'

B. García← L. Faravelli

58'

C. Ortiz← B. Montenegro

58'

N. Previtali← C. Pellerano

63'

J. Sánchez← J. Chávez

65'

Christian Ortíz

65'

M. Merentiel← T. Martínez

65'

L. Escalante← C. Rius

74'

P. Vite← J. Escobar

83'

V. Larralde← E. Fernández

89'

F. Paredes← M. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaIndependiente

Overview

53%Possession47%

5Total Shots14

3Corners9

9Fouls6

Shots

5Total Shots14

2On Target3

3Off Target8

0Blocked3

5Inside Box10

0Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

518Total Passes436

435Accurate Passes357

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

10Offsides2