Independiente del Valle 0–0 Club Nacional

Independiente del Valle

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Nacional

11/25/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Independiente del Valle60%

×Draw22%

Club Nacional19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.00

Independiente del Valle

1.96

Club Nacional

1.00

Independiente del Valle creates 96% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.03

creates per match

1.08

0.92

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.03

Club Nacional

1.08

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.92

Club Nacional

1.89

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente del Valle-0.25scores less

Club Nacional+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

81%

Independiente del Valle or Club Nacional

78%

Draw or Club Nacional

40%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

36%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

86%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

58%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

31%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

63%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

26%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

76%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.92 · 9 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.03 + Club Nacional defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.96

Club Nacional attack 1.08 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

60%

level

22%

Club Nacional scores more

19%

Independiente del Valle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Christian Ortíz

Independiente del Valle · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

33'

45'

65'

66'

G. Bergessio← C. Castro

66'

R. Garcia← C. Yacob

66'

B. Garcia← F. Guerrero

73'

J. Murillo← J. Sanchez

82'

C. Ortiz← E. Montano

82'

L. Faravelli← B. Rivero

87'

J. Trasante← A. Gonzalez

90+5'

E. Martinez← S. Cartagena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteClub

Overview

78%Possession22%

32Total Shots6

9Corners1

10Fouls10

Shots

32Total Shots6

6On Target2

17Off Target4

9Blocked0

17Inside Box3

15Outside Box3

Passing

78%Possession22%

557Total Passes158

483Accurate Passes89

87%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 0–0 Club Nacional

Independiente del Valle and Club Nacional drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on November 25, 2020.

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (78%) and registered 32 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.

Independiente del Valle vs Club Nacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independiente del Valle 0–0 Club Nacional