Club Nacional 0–0 Independiente del Valle

Club Nacional

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

12/2/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstadio Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Club Nacional48%

×Draw28%

Independiente del Valle24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club NacionalExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.86

Club Nacional

1.35

Independiente del Valle

0.86

Club Nacional creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.32

creates per match

0.94

0.79

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Club Nacional

1.32

Independiente del Valle

0.94

allows per match

Club Nacional

0.79

Independiente del Valle

1.38

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Club Nacional-0.03on par

Independiente del Valle-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw

76%

Club Nacional or Independiente del Valle

72%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

52%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+

23%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals

74%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

39%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

15%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

58%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

21%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

67%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.79 · 7 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 1.32 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Independiente del Valle attack 0.94 + Club Nacional defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Nacional scores more

48%

level

28%

Independiente del Valle scores more

24%

Club Nacional at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Sergio Rochet

Club Nacional · G

8.3

Match Events

45'

C. Ortiz

58'

I. Lores← I. Lores

63'

J. Sanchez← J. Sanchez

77'

R. Garcia← C. Yacob

79'

W.

83'

A. Landazuri← J. Murillo

84'

A. Mendez← C. Castro

85'

A. Trezza

90+1'

L. Faravelli

90+4'

L. Faravelli← E. Mera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubIndependiente

Overview

23%Possession77%

6Total Shots11

1Corners8

9Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target7

2Off Target4

2Blocked0

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

23%Possession77%

149Total Passes509

67Accurate Passes423

45%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Club Nacional vs Independiente del Valle

Club Nacional and Independiente del Valle drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on December 2, 2020.

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (77%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Gran Parque Central in Montevideo.

Club Nacional vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Club Nacional vs Independiente del Valle