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Independiente del Valle vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro 2018

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
4/27/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 11Estadio Municipal Rumiñaui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Independiente del Valle63%
×Draw21%
CD Olmedo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
2.06
CD Olmedo
0.95

Independiente del Valle creates 117% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 45 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.78
CD Olmedo
1.13

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.78
CD Olmedo
2.33

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

CD Olmedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
83%
Independiente del Valle or CD Olmedo
79%
Draw or CD Olmedo
37%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
39%
CD Olmedo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
87%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
61%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
34%
CD Olmedo 1+ goals
61%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
25%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
79%
CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.78 · 134 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + CD Olmedo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

CD Olmedo attack 1.13 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
63%
level
21%
CD Olmedo scores more
17%

Independiente del Valle at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs CD Olmedo

Independiente del Valle beat CD Olmedo 2-1 in Liga Pro on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rumiñaui in Sangolqui.