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CD Olmedo vs Independiente del Valle — Copa Ecuador 2022

CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
8/1/2024Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · 2nd RoundEstadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CD Olmedo31%
×Draw25%
Independiente del Valle43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olmedo
1.24
Independiente del Valle
1.51

Independiente del Valle creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

CD Olmedo
1.67
Independiente del Valle
2.36

allows per match

CD Olmedo
0.67
Independiente del Valle
0.82

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw
57%
CD Olmedo or Independiente del Valle
75%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
69%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+
13%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals
71%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
35%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
13%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
78%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
44%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
42%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.67 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.24

Independiente del Valle attack 2.36 + CD Olmedo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CD Olmedo scores more
31%
level
25%
Independiente del Valle scores more
43%

Independiente del Valle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Olmedo vs Independiente del Valle

CD Olmedo and Independiente del Valle drew 0-0 in Copa Ecuador on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba in Riobamba.