CD Olmedo 2–1 Independiente del Valle

CD Olmedo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente del Valle

10/25/2020

Liga Pro · 2° Girone - 3Estadio Olímpico de Riobamba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CD Olmedo27%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlmedoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.57

CD Olmedo

1.10

Independiente del Valle

1.57

Independiente del Valle creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 134 away

1.04

creates per match

1.56

1.58

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

CD Olmedo

1.04

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

CD Olmedo

1.58

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olmedo ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CD Olmedo or draw

52%

CD Olmedo or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

73%

Winning margin

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

10%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

67%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

30%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

10%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

79%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

46%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

36%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olmedo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olmedo attack 1.04 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + CD Olmedo defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CD Olmedo scores more

27%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

48%

Independiente del Valle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff