Independiente del Valle 2–0 Caracas FC

Independiente del Valle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Caracas FC

Cristián Dájome 76'

Alan Franco 62'

7/18/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8th FinalsOlimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Independiente del Valle57%

×Draw23%

Caracas FC20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchCaracas FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.95

Independiente del Valle

1.80

Caracas FC

0.95

Independiente del Valle creates 89% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

1.20

0.71

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.00

Caracas FC

1.20

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.71

Caracas FC

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Caracas FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

80%

Independiente del Valle or Caracas FC

77%

Draw or Caracas FC

43%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

33%

Caracas FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

83%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

54%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

27%

Caracas FC 1+ goals

61%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

25%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

74%

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.00 + Caracas FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Caracas FC attack 1.20 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

57%

level

23%

Caracas FC scores more

20%

Independiente del Valle at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Cristián Dájome

Independiente del Valle · F

8.1

Match Events

20'

25'

43'

59'

59'

62'

Alan Franco↳ Alejandro Cabeza

66'

Alejandro Cabeza

67'

Daniel Saggiomo← Néstor Canelón

70'

Carlos Espinoza

70'

Carlos Espinoza← Robert Hernandez

72'

Ricardo Andreutti

75'

Jhon Sánchez← Efrén Mera

76'

Cristián Dájome↳ Jhon Sánchez

79'

Roberto Garcés← Angelo Preciado

80'

Gabriel Torres← Alejandro Cabeza

81'

Anderson Contreras← Ricardo Andreutti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteCaracas

Overview

77%Possession23%

16Total Shots3

6Corners3

13Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots3

3On Target2

9Off Target1

4Blocked0

7Inside Box1

9Outside Box2

Passing

77%Possession23%

590Total Passes171

523Accurate Passes94

89%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards6

4Offsides0