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Caracas FC vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
7/10/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 8th FinalsEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Caracas FC33%
×Draw31%
Independiente del Valle36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
0.96
Independiente del Valle
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.00
Independiente del Valle
1.17

allows per match

Caracas FC
0.90
Independiente del Valle
0.92

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
64%
Caracas FC or Independiente del Valle
69%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
67%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
12%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
62%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
25%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
7%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
64%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
28%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
47%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Independiente del Valle attack 1.17 + Caracas FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Caracas FC scores more
33%
level
31%
Independiente del Valle scores more
36%

Independiente del Valle at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Richard Hernan SchunkeIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle · D
7.7

Match Events

50'
Eduardo Fereira
59'
Jesús Arrieta
59'
Richard Celis← Daniel Saggiomo
63'
Luis Colmenares← Eduardo Fereira
63'
Jhon Sánchez← Washington Corozo
69'
Cristian Pellerano← Efrén Mera
73'
Carlos Espinoza← Jesús Arrieta
77'
Gabriel Torres← Cristián Dájome

Possession

30%Caracas

Shots

4Caracas

Pass accuracy

42%Caracas

Statistics

CaracasIndependiente
Overview
30%Possession70%
4Total Shots13
1Corners4
9Fouls11
Shots
4Total Shots13
1On Target2
2Off Target8
1Blocked3
1Inside Box4
3Outside Box9
Passing
30%Possession70%
239Total Passes541
145Accurate Passes462
61%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Caracas FC 0–0 Independiente del Valle

Caracas FC and Independiente del Valle drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 10, 2019.

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (70%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.