Independiente del Valle 0–2 Bragantino

Independiente del Valle

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bragantino

Ramires 66'

Fabrício Bruno 19'

7/15/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Independiente del Valle44%

×Draw25%

Bragantino31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchBragantino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.30

Independiente del Valle

1.58

Bragantino

1.30

Independiente del Valle creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

2.00

creates per match

1.89

0.71

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.00

Bragantino

1.89

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.71

Bragantino

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Bragantino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Bragantino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

69%

Independiente del Valle or Bragantino

75%

Draw or Bragantino

56%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

22%

Bragantino wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

79%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

47%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

21%

Bragantino 1+ goals

73%

Bragantino 2+ goals

37%

Bragantino 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

58%

Bragantino (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Bragantino away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.00 + Bragantino defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bragantino attack 1.89 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

44%

level

25%

Bragantino scores more

31%

Independiente del Valle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Fabrício Bruno

Bragantino · D

8.0

Match Events

19'

Fabrício Bruno↳ Artur

58'

Jonathan Bauman

65'

J. Sornoza← F. Guerrero

66'

Ramires↳ Praxedes

69'

J. Escobar← F. Gaibor

71'

Pedrinho← T. Cuello

73'

Lucas Evangelista← Ramires

74'

J. Sánchez← L. Faravelli

74'

A. Landázuri← A. Minda

83'

Alerrandro← Ytalo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteBragantino

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots10

6Corners2

14Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target6

5Blocked1

4Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

522Total Passes409

428Accurate Passes338

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Red Cards0

0Offsides5