Bragantino 1–1 Independiente del Valle

Bragantino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

T. Cuello 52'

F. Guerrero 4'

7/22/2021

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bragantino49%

×Draw26%

Independiente del Valle25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BragantinoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Bragantino

1.46

Independiente del Valle

0.96

Bragantino creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.17

0.76

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Bragantino

2.00

Independiente del Valle

1.17

allows per match

Bragantino

0.76

Independiente del Valle

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bragantino+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragantino ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bragantino or draw

75%

Bragantino or Independiente del Valle

74%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

51%

Winning margin

Bragantino wins by 2+

24%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bragantino 1+ goals

77%

Bragantino 2+ goals

43%

Bragantino 3+ goals

18%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

62%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

25%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bragantino (draw refunded)

66%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragantino at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragantino attack 2.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Independiente del Valle attack 1.17 + Bragantino defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bragantino scores more

49%

level

26%

Independiente del Valle scores more

25%

Bragantino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Aderlan

Bragantino · D

8.2

Match Events

4'

F. Guerrero↳ J. Hurtado

11'

Bruno Praxedes

43'

Edimar

45+2'

L. Faravelli← J. Sornoza

52'

61'

67'

71'

79'

Ramires← Praxedes

80'

Helinho← T. Cuello

80'

F. Gaibor← B. García

80'

A. Minda← F. Guerrero

83'

Fernando Gaibor

89'

Alerrandro← Ytalo

90+3'

Natan← Edimar Fraga

90+4'

Jadsom Silva← Artur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BragantinoIndependiente

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots8

1Corners2

11Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots8

6On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked1

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

370Total Passes514

295Accurate Passes425

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Bragantino vs Independiente del Valle

Bragantino and Independiente del Valle drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 22, 2021.

Goals: F. Guerrero (4'), T. Cuello (52').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Bragança Paulista, São Paulo.

Bragantino vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bragantino vs Independiente del Valle