Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independiente del Valle vs Boca Juniors — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
7/18/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 32Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Independiente del Valle52%
×Draw26%
Boca Juniors22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.51
Boca Juniors
0.89

Independiente del Valle creates 70% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Boca Juniors
1.00

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.77
Boca Juniors
1.25

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Boca Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
78%
Independiente del Valle or Boca Juniors
74%
Draw or Boca Juniors
48%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
26%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
78%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
44%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
19%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
59%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
22%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
70%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Boca Juniors defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Boca Juniors attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
52%
level
26%
Boca Juniors scores more
22%

Independiente del Valle at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
R. SchunkeIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle · D
7.7

Match Events

2'
Luis Advíncula
37'
Renato Ibarra
57'
J. Medina← K. Arroyo
62'
J. Ramírez← L. Janson
62'
M. Mendía← J. Ceballos
71'
J. Lerma← K. Páez
72'
E. Zeballos← M. Benítez
78'
Juan Ramírez
82'
M. Hoyos← C. Zabala
82'
Romario Ibarra← R. López
82'
P. Mercado← Rrenato Ibarra
86'
S. Dalmasso← J. Saralegui
86'
L. Langoni← M. Merentiel

Possession

75%Independiente

Shots

15Independiente

Pass accuracy

60%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteBoca
Overview
75%Possession25%
15Total Shots4
10Corners2
13Fouls7
Shots
15Total Shots4
5On Target2
7Off Target2
3Blocked0
9Inside Box2
6Outside Box2
Passing
75%Possession25%
538Total Passes187
476Accurate Passes110
88%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Boca Juniors

Independiente del Valle and Boca Juniors drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 18, 2024.

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (75%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.