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Boca Juniors vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniorsadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
E. Cavani 39'
7/25/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 32Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boca Juniors52%
×Draw29%
Independiente del Valle19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.30
Independiente del Valle
0.65

Boca Juniors creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.60
Independiente del Valle
1.09

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.20
Independiente del Valle
1.00

finishing

Boca Juniors+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
81%
Boca Juniors or Independiente del Valle
71%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
48%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
25%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
73%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
37%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
14%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
48%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
14%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
74%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.60 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Independiente del Valle attack 1.09 + Boca Juniors defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
52%
level
29%
Independiente del Valle scores more
19%

Boca Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
L. AdvínculaBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · D
7.5

Match Events

34'
Cristian Lema
39'
E. Cavani
41'
Edinson CavaniGoal confirmed
58'
Richard Schunke
61'
Milton Delgado
64'
J. Sornoza← J. Medina
71'
R. López← A. Landázuri
72'
F. Fabra← J. Ceballos
72'
M. Fernández← K. Páez
81'
Michael Hoyos
82'
L. Di Lollo← M. Merentiel
82'
M. Benítez← J. Saralegui
85'
K. Arroyo← B. Caicedo
85'
J. Lerma← C. Zabala
90+8'
Luis Advíncula
90+8'
Keny Arroyo
90+5'
L. Langoni← E. Cavani

Possession

37%Boca

Shots

5Boca

Pass accuracy

46%Boca

Statistics

BocaIndependiente
Overview
37%Possession63%
5Total Shots5
3Corners0
13Fouls10
Shots
5Total Shots5
2On Target1
1Off Target4
2Blocked0
4Inside Box4
1Outside Box1
Passing
37%Possession63%
290Total Passes502
203Accurate Passes411
70%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls10
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Boca Juniors 1–0 Independiente del Valle

Boca Juniors beat Independiente del Valle 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 25, 2024.

Goals: E. Cavani (39').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (63%) and registered 5 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.