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Independiente del Valle vs Argentinos JRS — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
K. Rodríguez 90'
L. Díaz 48'
L. Faravelli 23'
L. Heredia 87'
M. Carbajal 44' (OG)
6/29/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Independiente del Valle53%
×Draw24%
Argentinos JRS23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.69
Argentinos JRS
1.01

Independiente del Valle creates 67% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 9 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
2.28
Argentinos JRS
1.22

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.80
Argentinos JRS
1.11

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Argentinos JRS+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Argentinos JRS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
77%
Independiente del Valle or Argentinos JRS
76%
Draw or Argentinos JRS
47%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
29%
Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
82%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
50%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
24%
Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
64%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
27%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
70%
Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

Argentinos JRS attack 1.22 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
53%
level
24%
Argentinos JRS scores more
23%

Independiente del Valle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
L. DíazIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle · F
8.3

Match Events

23'
L. Faravelli↳ L. Díaz
44'
M. CarbajalOwn goal
48'
L. Díaz↳ L. Faravelli
58'
G. Cortez← Y. Medina
58'
B. Caicedo← A. García
65'
K. Rodríguez← M. Hoyos
74'
L. Sánchez← L. González
74'
L. Heredia← F. Redondo
80'
F. Domínguez← J. Cabrera
80'
G. Verón← F. González
82'
M. Fernandez
82'
P. Mercado← K. Páez
82'
M. Moreno← L. Díaz
85'
M. Di Cesare← M. Torrén
86'
F. Moyano
87'
L. Heredia↳ S. Montiel
90+7'
F. Dominguez
90'
K. Rodríguez

Possession

53%Independiente

Shots

16Independiente

Pass accuracy

50%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteArgentinos
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots7
3Corners4
6Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots7
5On Target1
10Off Target4
1Blocked2
9Inside Box5
7Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
507Total Passes448
418Accurate Passes361
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Argentinos JRS

Independiente del Valle beat Argentinos JRS 3-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on June 29, 2023.

Goals: L. Faravelli (23'), M. Carbajal (44' o.g.), L. Díaz (48'), L. Heredia (87'), K. Rodríguez (90').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.