Argentinos JRS 1–0 Independiente del Valle

Argentinos JRS

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

J. Cabrera 46'

4/4/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Argentinos JRS50%

×Draw28%

Independiente del Valle22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentinos JRSExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.78

Argentinos JRS

1.35

Independiente del Valle

0.78

Argentinos JRS creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

0.88

creates per match

0.92

0.63

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Argentinos JRS

0.88

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Argentinos JRS

0.63

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw

78%

Argentinos JRS or Independiente del Valle

72%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

50%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

24%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

74%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

39%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

15%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

54%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

18%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

70%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 0.88 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more

50%

level

28%

Independiente del Valle scores more

22%

Argentinos JRS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Cabrera

Argentinos JRS · M

8.5

Match Events

6'

Mateo Carabajal

13'

Lucas Villalba

41'

Fabricio Domínguez

45+3'

Gabriel ÁvalosGoal cancelled

46'

J. Cabrera

57'

Gabriel Ávalos

61'

Kevin Rodriguez

61'

A. Rodríguez← F. Domínguez

64'

Agustín García Basso

65'

Kevin Mac Allister

68'

G. Cortez← A. García

68'

M. Hoyos← C. Pellerano

74'

L. Sánchez← S. Montiel

75'

M. Moreno← L. Díaz

82'

J. Alcívar← L. Faravelli

83'

N. Previtali← J. Sornoza

90+2'

F. Moyano← F. González

90+2'

T. Nuss← G. Verón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgentinosIndependiente

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots12

4Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots12

7On Target5

7Off Target6

1Blocked1

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

314Total Passes398

229Accurate Passes294

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1