Independiente del Valle 3–0 America Mineiro

Independiente del Valle

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

America Mineiro

J. Chávez 74'

F. Gaibor 43'

J. Sornoza 17'

5/26/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independiente del Valle66%

×Draw20%

America Mineiro15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.90

Independiente del Valle

2.14

America Mineiro

0.90

Independiente del Valle creates 138% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

2.28

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

America Mineiro

1.00

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

America Mineiro

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

85%

Independiente del Valle or America Mineiro

80%

Draw or America Mineiro

34%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

42%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

88%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

63%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

36%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

59%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

23%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

82%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + America Mineiro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.14

America Mineiro attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

66%

level

20%

America Mineiro scores more

15%

Independiente del Valle at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

F. Gaibor

Independiente del Valle · F

8.5

Match Events

17'

J. Sornoza↳ F. Gaibor

43'

F. Gaibor↳ P. Perlaza

61'

Kawê← Aloisio

61'

Gustavinho← Felipe Azevedo

68'

P. Perlaza

68'

Henrique Almeida

70'

Eder Ferreira

70'

Carlos Alberto← Henrique Almeida

70'

R. Cáceres← Patric

73'

W. Vargas← P. Perlaza

73'

D. Cabezas← F. Gaibor

74'

J. Chávez↳ R. Schunke

77'

Zé Ricardo← Alê

79'

79'

82'

82'

82'

M. Angulo← C. Pellerano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAmerica

Overview

67%Possession33%

20Total Shots4

13Corners1

8Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots4

9On Target3

8Off Target1

3Blocked0

11Inside Box2

9Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

546Total Passes283

465Accurate Passes208

85%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5