America Mineiro 0–2 Independiente del Valle

America Mineiro

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

B. Arce 90+5'

J. Sornoza 12'

4/6/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

America Mineiro35%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.26

America Mineiro

1.22

Independiente del Valle

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

0.60

creates per match

0.92

1.60

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

America Mineiro

0.60

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.60

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

63%

America Mineiro or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

65%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

15%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

70%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

34%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

12%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

72%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

36%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

49%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 0.60 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + America Mineiro defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

America Mineiro scores more

35%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

37%

Independiente del Valle at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Schunke

Independiente del Valle · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

J. Sornoza↳ R. Schunke

21'

28'

39'

45+2'

45+2'

49'

56'

61'

61'

J. Ramírez← Everaldo Junior

69'

Lorenzo Faravelli

71'

Henrique Almeida← Paulinho Bóia

74'

Richard Schunke

74'

B. Arce← J. Ayoví

80'

F. Gaibor← J. Sornoza

80'

D. Cabezas← N. Previtali

85'

Matheusinho← Pedrinho

85'

Juninho Valoura← Lucas Kal

89'

Matheusinho

90'

C. Angulo← J. Chávez

90'

M. Angulo← C. Pellerano

90+5'

B. Arce↳ L. Faravelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaIndependiente

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots8

4Corners1

10Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots8

3On Target4

9Off Target3

3Blocked1

6Inside Box7

9Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

381Total Passes358

300Accurate Passes263

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls17

5Yellow Cards5

5Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: America Mineiro 0–2 Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat America Mineiro 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 6, 2022.

Goals: J. Sornoza (12'), B. Arce (90+5').

America Mineiro controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

America Mineiro vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: America Mineiro 0–2 Independiente del Valle