Independente SP 1–2 Guarulhos: Result & Stats

Independente SP

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Guarulhos

Unknown 58'

Unknown 85', 23'

5/11/2025

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Independente SP61%

×Draw19%

Guarulhos20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independente SPExpected goals in this matchGuarulhos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.35

Independente SP

2.45

Guarulhos

1.35

Independente SP creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

3.07

creates per match

1.83

0.87

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Independente SP

3.07

Guarulhos

1.83

allows per match

Independente SP

0.87

Guarulhos

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independente SP+0.00on par

Guarulhos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP ↓

Guarulhos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Independente SP or draw

80%

Independente SP or Guarulhos

81%

Draw or Guarulhos

39%

Winning margin

Independente SP wins by 2+

40%

Guarulhos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independente SP 1+ goals

91%

Independente SP 2+ goals

70%

Independente SP 3+ goals

44%

Guarulhos 1+ goals

74%

Guarulhos 2+ goals

39%

Guarulhos 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Independente SP (draw refunded)

75%

Guarulhos (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Guarulhos away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP attack 3.07 + Guarulhos defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.45

Guarulhos attack 1.83 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independente SP scores more

61%

level

19%

Guarulhos scores more

20%

Independente SP at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

58'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff