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Guarulhos vs Independente SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Guarulhos
Guarulhos
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Independente SP
Independente SP
Unknown 9'
Unknown 89', 40', 31', 25'
6/15/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Guarulhos31%
×Draw26%
Independente SP44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarulhos
1.20
Independente SP
1.49

Independente SP creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guarulhos
1.33
Independente SP
1.73

allows per match

Guarulhos
1.25
Independente SP
1.07

finishing

Guarulhos+0.00on par
Independente SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarulhos ↓

Independente SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guarulhos or draw
56%
Guarulhos or Independente SP
74%
Draw or Independente SP
69%

Winning margin

Guarulhos wins by 2+
13%
Independente SP wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Guarulhos 1+ goals
70%
Guarulhos 2+ goals
34%
Guarulhos 3+ goals
12%
Independente SP 1+ goals
77%
Independente SP 2+ goals
44%
Independente SP 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Guarulhos (draw refunded)
41%
Independente SP (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarulhos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Independente SP away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarulhos attack 1.33 + Independente SP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Independente SP attack 1.73 + Guarulhos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guarulhos scores more
31%
level
26%
Independente SP scores more
44%

Independente SP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
25'
31'
40'
89'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarulhos vs Independente SP

Independente SP beat Guarulhos 4-1 in Paulista Série B on June 15, 2025.

Goals: ? (9', 25', 31', 40', 89').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.