Independente SP vs Flamengo SP — Paulista Série B 2026
Paulista Série B · Semi-finals
Independente SP have won 6 in a row
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Independente SP58%
Flamengo SP21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Independente SP creates 79% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Independente SP ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches
Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Independente SP attack 3.07 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 2.01
Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Independente SP at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Top-of-the-table clash — Independente SP 1 vs Flamengo SP 1
- 40% of Independente SP’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Independente SP host Flamengo SP on Sunday, 2 August 2026 at 20:00. The match is part of the Paulista Série B 2026/2027 season.
Independente SP face Flamengo SP (Paulista Série B)
Paulista Série B returns with Independente SP hosting Flamengo SP. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.