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Flamengo SP vs Independente SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Independente SP
Independente SP
Unknown 66', 45+2'
Unknown 86', 83', 51', 4'
5/31/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Flamengo SP39%
×Draw26%
Independente SP35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP
1.41
Independente SP
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP
1.74
Independente SP
1.73

allows per match

Flamengo SP
0.89
Independente SP
1.07

finishing

Flamengo SP+0.00on par
Independente SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP ↓

Independente SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Flamengo SP or draw
65%
Flamengo SP or Independente SP
74%
Draw or Independente SP
61%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP wins by 2+
18%
Independente SP wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Flamengo SP 1+ goals
76%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
41%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
17%
Independente SP 1+ goals
73%
Independente SP 2+ goals
38%
Independente SP 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
53%
Independente SP (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Independente SP away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP attack 1.74 + Independente SP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

Independente SP attack 1.73 + Flamengo SP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Flamengo SP scores more
39%
level
26%
Independente SP scores more
35%

Flamengo SP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Flamengo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
45+2'
51'
66'
83'
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Flamengo SP 2–4 Independente SP

Independente SP beat Flamengo SP 4-2 in Paulista Série B on May 31, 2025.

Goals: ? (4', 45+2', 51', 66', 83', 86').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.