Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independente SP vs Flamengo SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Independente SP
Independente SP
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
Unknown 58', 26'
Unknown 90+2', 33'
4/27/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Independente SP58%
×Draw21%
Flamengo SP21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP
2.01
Flamengo SP
1.12

Independente SP creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

creates per match

Independente SP
3.07
Flamengo SP
1.37

allows per match

Independente SP
0.87
Flamengo SP
0.95

finishing

Independente SP+0.00on par
Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP ↓

Flamengo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Independente SP or draw
79%
Independente SP or Flamengo SP
79%
Draw or Flamengo SP
42%

Winning margin

Independente SP wins by 2+
34%
Flamengo SP wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independente SP 1+ goals
87%
Independente SP 2+ goals
59%
Independente SP 3+ goals
32%
Flamengo SP 1+ goals
67%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
31%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independente SP (draw refunded)
74%
Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP attack 3.07 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 2.01

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Independente SP scores more
58%
level
21%
Flamengo SP scores more
21%

Independente SP at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
33'
58'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Independente SP 2–2 Flamengo SP

Independente SP and Flamengo SP drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on April 27, 2025.

Goals: ? (26', 33', 58', 90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada in Limeira, São Paulo.