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Independente SP vs Assisense — Paulista Série B 2026

Independente SP
Independente SP
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Assisense
Assisense
Unknown 90+7', 34', 13'
Unknown 45+3', 18'
7/19/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 4Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independente SP67%
×Draw20%
Assisense14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente SP
2.11
Assisense
0.82

Independente SP creates 157% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

Independente SP
3.07
Assisense
0.77

allows per match

Independente SP
0.87
Assisense
1.15

finishing

Independente SP+0.00on par
Assisense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP ↓

Assisense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Independente SP or draw
86%
Independente SP or Assisense
80%
Draw or Assisense
33%

Winning margin

Independente SP wins by 2+
43%
Assisense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Independente SP 1+ goals
88%
Independente SP 2+ goals
62%
Independente SP 3+ goals
35%
Assisense 1+ goals
56%
Assisense 2+ goals
20%
Assisense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independente SP (draw refunded)
83%
Assisense (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Assisense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP attack 3.07 + Assisense defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.11

Assisense attack 0.77 + Independente SP defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Independente SP scores more
67%
level
20%
Assisense scores more
14%

Independente SP at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
18'
34'
45+3'
90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independente SP vs Assisense

Independente SP beat Assisense 3-2 in Paulista Série B on July 19, 2025.

Goals: ? (13', 18', 34', 45+3', 90+7').

The match was played at Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada in Limeira, São Paulo.