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Assisense vs Independente SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Assisense
Assisense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independente SP
Independente SP
D. Foguinho 75'
7/11/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Assisense33%
×Draw23%
Independente SP44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assisense
1.50
Independente SP
1.75

Independente SP creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Assisense
1.92
Independente SP
1.73

allows per match

Assisense
1.77
Independente SP
1.07

finishing

Assisense+0.00on par
Independente SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assisense ↓

Independente SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Assisense or draw
56%
Assisense or Independente SP
77%
Draw or Independente SP
67%

Winning margin

Assisense wins by 2+
16%
Independente SP wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Assisense 1+ goals
78%
Assisense 2+ goals
44%
Assisense 3+ goals
19%
Independente SP 1+ goals
83%
Independente SP 2+ goals
52%
Independente SP 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Assisense (draw refunded)
43%
Independente SP (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assisense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Independente SP away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assisense attack 1.92 + Independente SP defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Independente SP attack 1.73 + Assisense defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Assisense scores more
33%
level
23%
Independente SP scores more
44%

Independente SP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independente SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
D. Foguinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Assisense 1 – 0 Independente SP

Assisense beat Independente SP 1-0 in Paulista Série B on July 11, 2025.

Goals: D. Foguinho (75').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal in Marília, São Paulo.