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Independente PA vs Bragantino PA — Serie D 2026

Independente PA
Independente PA
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bragantino PA
Bragantino PA
11/1/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 10Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independente PA49%
×Draw24%
Bragantino PA27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente PA
1.75
Bragantino PA
1.23

Independente PA creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Independente PA
1.82
Bragantino PA
1.46

allows per match

Independente PA
1.00
Bragantino PA
1.69

finishing

Independente PA+0.00on par
Bragantino PA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente PA ↓

Bragantino PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Independente PA or draw
73%
Independente PA or Bragantino PA
76%
Draw or Bragantino PA
51%

Winning margin

Independente PA wins by 2+
27%
Bragantino PA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independente PA 1+ goals
83%
Independente PA 2+ goals
52%
Independente PA 3+ goals
25%
Bragantino PA 1+ goals
71%
Bragantino PA 2+ goals
35%
Bragantino PA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Independente PA (draw refunded)
65%
Bragantino PA (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente PA at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Bragantino PA away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente PA attack 1.82 + Bragantino PA defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bragantino PA attack 1.46 + Independente PA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independente PA scores more
49%
level
24%
Bragantino PA scores more
27%

Independente PA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independente PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independente PA vs Bragantino PA

Independente PA beat Bragantino PA 3-2 in Serie D on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias in Tucuruí, Pará.