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Bragantino PA vs Independente PA — Serie D 2026

Bragantino PA
Bragantino PA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Independente PA
Independente PA
10/11/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estádio São Benedito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bragantino PA68%
×Draw19%
Independente PA13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bragantino PA
2.10
Independente PA
0.77

Bragantino PA creates 173% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bragantino PA
1.85
Independente PA
1.00

allows per match

Bragantino PA
0.54
Independente PA
2.36

finishing

Bragantino PA+0.00on par
Independente PA+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bragantino PA ↓

Independente PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bragantino PA or draw
87%
Bragantino PA or Independente PA
81%
Draw or Independente PA
32%

Winning margin

Bragantino PA wins by 2+
43%
Independente PA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bragantino PA 1+ goals
88%
Bragantino PA 2+ goals
62%
Bragantino PA 3+ goals
35%
Independente PA 1+ goals
54%
Independente PA 2+ goals
18%
Independente PA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bragantino PA (draw refunded)
84%
Independente PA (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bragantino PA at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Independente PA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bragantino PA attack 1.85 + Independente PA defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.10

Independente PA attack 1.00 + Bragantino PA defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bragantino PA scores more
68%
level
19%
Independente PA scores more
13%

Bragantino PA at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bragantino PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bragantino PA vs Independente PA

Bragantino PA beat Independente PA 2-0 in Serie D on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio São Benedito in Bragança, Pará.