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Independente PA vs Barcelona RO — Serie D 2026

Independente PA
Independente PA
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barcelona RO
Barcelona RO
5/27/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias (Tucuruí, Pará)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independente PA60%
×Draw22%
Barcelona RO18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independente PA
1.91
Barcelona RO
0.92

Independente PA creates 108% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Independente PA
1.82
Barcelona RO
0.83

allows per match

Independente PA
1.00
Barcelona RO
2.00

finishing

Independente PA+0.00on par
Barcelona RO+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente PA ↓

Barcelona RO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Independente PA or draw
82%
Independente PA or Barcelona RO
78%
Draw or Barcelona RO
40%

Winning margin

Independente PA wins by 2+
36%
Barcelona RO wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independente PA 1+ goals
85%
Independente PA 2+ goals
57%
Independente PA 3+ goals
30%
Barcelona RO 1+ goals
60%
Barcelona RO 2+ goals
23%
Barcelona RO 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independente PA (draw refunded)
77%
Barcelona RO (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente PA at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Barcelona RO away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente PA attack 1.82 + Barcelona RO defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Barcelona RO attack 0.83 + Independente PA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Independente PA scores more
60%
level
22%
Barcelona RO scores more
18%

Independente PA at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Independente PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Independente PA 0–0 Barcelona RO

Independente PA and Barcelona RO drew 0-0 in Serie D on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias (Tucuruí, Pará).