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Barcelona RO vs Independente PA — Serie D 2026

Barcelona RO
Barcelona RO
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Independente PA
Independente PA
4/22/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Portal da Amazônia (Vilhena, Rondônia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona RO63%
×Draw21%
Independente PA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona RO
2.01
Independente PA
0.92

Barcelona RO creates 118% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Barcelona RO
1.67
Independente PA
1.00

allows per match

Barcelona RO
0.83
Independente PA
2.36

finishing

Barcelona RO+0.00on par
Independente PA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona RO ↓

Independente PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Barcelona RO or draw
83%
Barcelona RO or Independente PA
79%
Draw or Independente PA
37%

Winning margin

Barcelona RO wins by 2+
38%
Independente PA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Barcelona RO 1+ goals
87%
Barcelona RO 2+ goals
59%
Barcelona RO 3+ goals
32%
Independente PA 1+ goals
60%
Independente PA 2+ goals
23%
Independente PA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barcelona RO (draw refunded)
79%
Independente PA (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona RO at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Independente PA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona RO attack 1.67 + Independente PA defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.01

Independente PA attack 1.00 + Barcelona RO defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Barcelona RO scores more
63%
level
21%
Independente PA scores more
17%

Barcelona RO at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Barcelona RO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barcelona RO 1 – 1 Independente PA

Barcelona RO and Independente PA drew 1-1 in Serie D on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Portal da Amazônia (Vilhena, Rondônia).